Efficiency Comparison & Asymptotic Variance Estimation
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
6/16/2026
A PDMP: Forward Event-Chain Monte Carlo
A Blog Entry on Bayesian Computation by an Applied Mathematician
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Many PDMPs behave similarly in high dimensions.

discretized by symplectic integrator
O(d^{1.25}) complexity

approximated by (random) piecewise linear interpolation
O(d^{1.5}) complexity

Local Implementation O(d^1)
Exploiting sparsity, BPS atteins better scaling than HMC (MSE/sec.)
Stochastic Gradient O(n^0)
x: sample size n, y: log ESS
Logistic regression with d=16
Using an appropriate control variate, the efficiency of Zig-Zag is O(1)
in the limit of n\to\infty, it outperforms Langevin.
We compare two famous PDMP methods under the following condition:






Effective Sample Size of U(x)=\|x\|^2, the negative log-density of 100 dimensional standard Gaussian, estimated over 1000 runs
\text{Plotting } \textcolor{#0096FF}{Y_t^{(d)}}=\frac{\lvert\textcolor{#0096FF}{X}_{d\textcolor{#0096FF}{t}}^{\textcolor{#0096FF}{(d)}}\rvert^2-d}{\sqrt{d}} \text{ with } d=10^2,10^3,10^4:
dY_t^{\textcolor{#0096FF}{\text{B}}}=-\frac{\sigma^2_{\textcolor{#0096FF}{\text{B}}}(\rho)}{4}Y_t^{\textcolor{#0096FF}{\text{B}}}\,dt+\sigma_{\textcolor{#0096FF}{\text{B}}}(\rho)\,dB_t \sigma^2_{\textcolor{#0096FF}{\text{B}}}(\rho)=8\int^\infty_0e^{-\rho s}\operatorname{E}[R_0^{\textcolor{#0096FF}{\text{B}}}R_s^{\textcolor{#0096FF}{\text{B}}}]\,ds
dY_t^{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{F}}}=-\frac{\sigma^2_{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{F}}}(\rho)}{4}Y_t^{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{F}}}\,dt+\sigma_{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{F}}}(\rho)\,dB_t \sigma^2_{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{F}}}(\rho)=8\int^\infty_0e^{-\rho s}\operatorname{E}[R_0^{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{F}}}R_s^{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{F}}}]\,ds
While BPS atteins maximum at non-trivial value of \rho, FECMC achieves maximum at \rho=0
Algorithmically, there is a fundamental difference between
\text{PDMP}\quad\widehat{h}_T^{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{PDMP}}}=\frac{1}{T}\int^T_0h(\textcolor{#E95420}{X}_{\textcolor{#E95420}{t}}^{\textcolor{#E95420}{(d)}})\,dt, \text{classical MCMC}\quad\widehat{h}_N^{\textcolor{#0096FF}{\text{Classical MCMC}}}=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{n=1}^Nh(\textcolor{#0096FF}{X_n^{(d)}}).
Exploiting this continuous-time nature of PDMP, we can derive an efficient estimator for the asymptotic variance of \widehat{h}_T^{\textcolor{#E95420}{\text{PDMP}}}.